Marketwatch — Key List Report (2026-07-27)

MAs as of close 2026-07-24. Exit v3 (trend-hold): hold to a daily close below the 50-day SMA; disaster stop −12%. No target/breakeven. Full position = 7% of portfolio.

Performance since inception (2026-01-01) — as of close 2026-07-24

Book	YTD	QTD	MTD
📘 Gated (record)	$+156,622 (+11.19%)	$-44,734	$-44,734
🧪 Ideal (paper)	$+133,876 (+9.56%)	$-46,781	$-46,781
📊 Benchmark	$+189,428 (+13.53%)	$-198,153	$-198,153

Regime gate: 2/8 — DISTRIBUTION / RISK-OFF · allowed new entries: 0 (manage exits, raise cash)

⚡ Tomorrow's action — 📘 Book of record (gated) — regime 2/8, up to 0 new entries

🚫 No new buys — regime gate closed. Manage the open book only.
🟦 Ready when the gate reopens (top TT 8/8, nearest trigger — staged):

JPM buy-stop 353.40 · disaster stop 310.99 · then hold to a close < 50 SMA · 282 sh (-0.1% to trigger)
BAC buy-stop 62.30 · disaster stop 54.82 · then hold to a close < 50 SMA · 1605 sh (-0.4% to trigger)
NTAP buy-stop 169.20 · disaster stop 148.90 · then hold to a close < 50 SMA · 591 sh (-0.9% to trigger)
SKWD buy-stop 61.20 · disaster stop 53.86 · then hold to a close < 50 SMA · 1633 sh (-1.2% to trigger)
ENVA buy-stop 242.30 · disaster stop 213.22 · then hold to a close < 50 SMA · 412 sh (-2.1% to trigger)

🔴 Exit / act: near disaster stop → none · ⏳ stale → FSTR (-2.8% after 24d), KRE (+1.9% after 21d)

🟡 Trend-exit watch: near 50-SMA (close below = exit) → IWM (+0.1% vs 50SMA), GS (+1.9% vs 50SMA), MS (+0.9% vs 50SMA), FSTR (+1.5% vs 50SMA)

➕ Add-ons: none

🧪 Alternative — Ideal book (paper v3) — regime 2/8, up to 0 new entries · stocks-only

🚫 No new buys — regime gate closed. Manage the open book only.
🟦 Ready when the gate reopens (top TT 8/8, nearest trigger — staged):

JPM buy-stop 353.40 · disaster stop 310.99 · then hold to a close < 50 SMA · 282 sh (-0.1% to trigger)
BAC buy-stop 62.30 · disaster stop 54.82 · then hold to a close < 50 SMA · 1605 sh (-0.4% to trigger)
NTAP buy-stop 169.20 · disaster stop 148.90 · then hold to a close < 50 SMA · 591 sh (-0.9% to trigger)
SKWD buy-stop 61.20 · disaster stop 53.86 · then hold to a close < 50 SMA · 1633 sh (-1.2% to trigger)

🔴 Exit / act: near disaster stop → none

🟡 Trend-exit watch: near 50-SMA (close below = exit) → GS (+1.9% vs 50SMA)

➕ Add-ons: none

⚠ Earnings within 7d (excluded from new buys; trim/−½ held names before the report): TRN (4d), AAPL (4d), LTH (4d)

Cooldown (skip): none · Extended >8% vs 21-MA (skip/reduce): DELL (+8.5% vs 21MA), OVV (+15.3% vs 21MA), HPE (+8.3% vs 21MA)

Ticker	Entry	Last	9 EMA	21 MA	50 SMA ←exit	200 MA	Disaster −12%	Shares (7%)	Status
IYR	107.40	107.00	105.27	104.24	102.71	97.75	94.51	931	… setup, -0.4% vs pivot (not triggered)
TRN	37.90	37.41	36.48	35.53	34.34	30.48	33.35	2,638	… setup, -1.3% vs pivot (not triggered)
AAPL	335.00	333.02	325.27	312.52	306.23	275.66	294.80	298	… setup, -0.6% vs pivot (not triggered)
OOMA	21.20	20.02	20.19	19.89	18.77	14.27	18.66	4,716	… setup, -5.6% vs pivot (not triggered)
PANW	336.60	323.79	336.39	336.91	297.04	211.60	296.21	297	… setup, -3.8% vs pivot (not triggered)
DELL	454.80	437.50	423.10	418.99	382.58	207.37	400.22	219	… setup, -3.8% vs pivot (not triggered)
NTAP	169.20	167.74	165.10	162.28	155.69	118.77	148.90	591	… setup, -0.9% vs pivot (not triggered)
BAC	62.30	62.05	61.09	59.81	55.99	52.82	54.82	1,605	… setup, -0.4% vs pivot (not triggered)
JPM	353.40	353.21	345.50	338.29	321.37	308.02	310.99	282	… setup, -0.1% vs pivot (not triggered)
FVCB	18.40	18.00	17.75	17.57	16.73	14.79	16.19	5,434	… setup, -2.2% vs pivot (not triggered)
SKWD	61.20	60.46	59.28	59.38	52.47	48.01	53.86	1,633	… setup, -1.2% vs pivot (not triggered)
NVDA	212.00	206.84	207.13	202.97	209.11	192.72	186.56	471	… setup, -2.4% vs pivot (not triggered)
OVV	64.70	63.13	59.37	56.10	56.48	48.44	56.94	1,545	… setup, -2.4% vs pivot (not triggered)
ENVA	242.30	237.27	229.40	232.39	199.45	157.92	213.22	412	… setup, -2.1% vs pivot (not triggered)
LTH	42.70	42.33	42.05	41.58	37.09	29.61	37.58	2,341	… setup, -0.9% vs pivot (not triggered)
HPE	49.70	47.69	46.98	45.90	44.54	28.73	43.74	2,012	… setup, -4.0% vs pivot (not triggered)

Order plan — thinkorswim (buy-stop + disaster stop)

Tickets to review and place yourself — not advice. Buy-STOP entry + STOP −12% (disaster); no target — hold to a close below the 50-day SMA. Regime 2/8 → new buys are — (regime gate closed: no new buys). (7–8: FULL · 4–6: PILOT ½, add rest on confirmation · ≤3: none.)

Ticker	Buy STOP	Size	Qty	Disaster STOP −12%	Exit rule	Flags
IYR	107.40	🚫 gate closed	465	94.51	close < 50 SMA	ETF ×0.5
TRN	37.90	🚫 gate closed	2638	33.35	close < 50 SMA
AAPL	335.00	🚫 gate closed	298	294.80	close < 50 SMA
OOMA	21.20	🚫 gate closed	4716	18.66	close < 50 SMA
PANW	336.60	🚫 gate closed	297	296.21	close < 50 SMA
DELL	454.80	🚫 gate closed	219	400.22	close < 50 SMA	📏 extended
NTAP	169.20	🚫 gate closed	591	148.90	close < 50 SMA
BAC	62.30	🚫 gate closed	1605	54.82	close < 50 SMA
JPM	353.40	🚫 gate closed	282	310.99	close < 50 SMA
FVCB	18.40	🚫 gate closed	5434	16.19	close < 50 SMA
SKWD	61.20	🚫 gate closed	1633	53.86	close < 50 SMA
NVDA	212.00	🚫 gate closed	471	186.56	close < 50 SMA
OVV	64.70	🚫 gate closed	1545	56.94	close < 50 SMA	📏 extended
ENVA	242.30	🚫 gate closed	412	213.22	close < 50 SMA
LTH	42.70	🚫 gate closed	2341	37.58	close < 50 SMA
HPE	49.70	🚫 gate closed	2012	43.74	close < 50 SMA	📏 extended

Add-on plan — scale pilots toward full (advisory)

No add-ons — regime 2/8 is not a confirmed uptrend (≥7). Pilots are topped up to full only when the market confirms.

Book of record — gated (disciplined) book

💰 Deployed $575,000 (41.1% of $1,400,000) across 12/12 names · ~$625,000 still investable to the 86% cap (0 free slot(s) + pilot top-ups)

Size: **7.14%** = full ($100,000); **3.57%** = pilot (NEUTRAL regime, ½ size) *or* ETF (½); **1.79%** = ETF pilot (¼). Pilots are deliberate half-size starts; **adding the rest on confirmation is not yet modeled**, so a pilot stays pilot-sized (it was not trimmed).

12 open + 36 closed · realized +9.57% eq · unrealized +1.61% eq · total +11.19% of equity ≈ $+156,622

Ticker	From list	Size	Fill	50-SMA exit	Disaster −12%	Lock +15% (arm +30%)	Status	Ret %	Equity %
VIK	2026-04-24	3.57% pilot	82.30	94.57	72.42	arm 106.99 → +15% 94.64	OPEN (trend)	+22.4%	+0.80%
GS	2026-05-13	3.57% pilot	950.00	1041.20	836.00	arm 1235.00 → +15% 1092.50	OPEN (trend)	+11.7%	+0.42%
MS	2026-05-13	3.57% pilot	194.90	212.65	171.51	arm 253.37 → +15% 224.13	OPEN (trend)	+10.0%	+0.36%
IWM	2026-05-01	1.79% pilot	278.30	290.89	244.90	arm 361.79 → +15% 320.05	OPEN (trend)	+4.6%	+0.08%
JAZZ	2026-07-06	3.57% pilot	243.90	237.06	214.63	arm 317.07 → +15% 280.48	OPEN (trend)	+4.1%	+0.15%
FTNT	2026-06-15	3.57% pilot	146.40	146.57	128.83	arm 190.32 → +15% 168.36	OPEN (trend)	+4.1%	+0.15%
ROKU	2026-06-30	3.57% pilot	137.60	133.79	121.09	arm 178.88 → +15% 158.24	OPEN (trend)	+3.2%	+0.11%
KBE	2026-06-25	1.79% pilot	67.80	66.05	59.66	arm 88.14 → +15% 77.97	OPEN (trend)	+2.3%	+0.04%
KRE	2026-06-25	1.79% pilot	74.30	72.17	65.38	arm 96.59 → +15% 85.44	OPEN (trend)	+1.9%	+0.03%
FSTR	2026-06-22	7.14%	43.60	41.79	38.37	arm 56.68 → +15% 50.14	OPEN (trend)	-2.8%	-0.20%
SN	2026-07-17	3.57% pilot	154.30	133.59	135.78	arm 200.59 → +15% 177.44	OPEN (trend)	-3.7%	-0.13%
VCYT	2026-07-16	3.57% pilot	59.90	51.83	52.71	arm 77.87 → +15% 68.88	OPEN (trend)	-5.5%	-0.20%

Ideal book — leader-pullback swing (paper v3)

Stocks only, near-support entries, ≤8 names. In-sample paper — not the book of record.
💰 Deployed $250,000 (17.9% of $1,400,000) across 5/8 names · ~$550,000 still investable to the 57% cap (3 free slot(s) + pilot top-ups)
5 open + 30 closed · realized +9.13% eq · unrealized +0.43% eq · total +9.56% of equity ≈ $+133,876

Ticker	From list	Size	Fill	50-SMA exit	Disaster −12%	Lock +15% (arm +30%)	Status	Ret %	Equity %
GS	2026-05-13	3.57% pilot	950.00	1041.20	836.00	arm 1235.00 → +15% 1092.50	OPEN (trend)	+11.7%	+0.42%
JAZZ	2026-07-06	3.57% pilot	243.90	237.06	214.63	arm 317.07 → +15% 280.48	OPEN (trend)	+4.1%	+0.15%
TRGP	2026-07-14	3.57% pilot	281.20	270.05	247.46	arm 365.56 → +15% 323.38	OPEN (trend)	+0.0%	+0.00%
ROKU	2026-07-16	3.57% pilot	143.60	133.79	126.37	arm 186.68 → +15% 165.14	OPEN (trend)	-1.1%	-0.04%
LIND	2026-07-17	3.57% pilot	27.60	24.24	24.29	arm 35.88 → +15% 31.74	OPEN (trend)	-2.7%	-0.10%

Benchmark — every-signal book (no selection discipline, capital-capped ≤12)

Every trigger, no TT/regime gating, ≤12 concurrent (capital cap). The gap vs the book of record is the selection discipline's value.
💰 Deployed $1,200,000 (85.7% of $1,400,000) across 12/12 names · ~$0 still investable to the 86% cap (0 free slot(s))
12 open (+11.71% eq) + closed since inception +1.82% eq = +13.53% of equity ≈ $+189,428 — vs book of record +11.19% eq

Ticker	From list	Size	Fill	50-SMA exit	Disaster −12%	Lock +15% (arm +30%)	Status	Ret %	Equity %
DELL	2026-04-01	7.14%	168.00	382.58	193.20	🔒 +15% @193.20	OPEN (trend)	+160.4%	+11.46%
OOMA	2026-06-29	7.14%	18.70	18.77	16.46	arm 24.31 → +15% 21.50	OPEN (trend)	+7.1%	+0.50%
IEO	2026-07-14	7.14%	118.80	115.66	104.54	arm 154.44 → +15% 136.62	OPEN (trend)	+4.8%	+0.34%
KRE	2026-06-25	7.14%	74.30	72.17	65.38	arm 96.59 → +15% 85.44	OPEN (trend) ⏳stale	+1.9%	+0.14%
SUN	2026-07-20	7.14%	74.30	68.35	65.38	arm 96.59 → +15% 85.44	OPEN (trend)	+1.2%	+0.09%
BAC	2026-07-24	7.14%	62.00	55.99	54.56	arm 80.60 → +15% 71.30	OPEN (trend)	+0.1%	+0.01%
IBB	2026-07-16	7.14%	190.30	178.86	167.46	arm 247.39 → +15% 218.84	OPEN (trend)	-1.1%	-0.08%
BBH	2026-07-17	7.14%	206.30	194.16	181.54	arm 268.19 → +15% 237.25	OPEN (trend)	-1.3%	-0.09%
LOB	2026-07-24	7.14%	42.70	39.34	37.58	arm 55.51 → +15% 49.10	OPEN (trend)	-1.5%	-0.10%
MDY	2026-07-02	7.14%	704.20	683.42	619.70	arm 915.46 → +15% 809.83	OPEN (trend) ⏳stale	-1.9%	-0.14%
FSTR	2026-06-22	7.14%	43.60	41.79	38.37	arm 56.68 → +15% 50.14	OPEN (trend) ⏳stale	-2.8%	-0.20%
CXW	2026-07-21	7.14%	32.30	26.95	28.42	arm 41.99 → +15% 37.14	OPEN (trend)	-2.9%	-0.21%

Closed positions — this month (2026-07)

Trades exited this calendar month. Single-account view (one position per name at a time; adds not modeled). Net P&L per trade.

✅ Closed with profit (4)

Ticker	From list	Entered	Fill	Exited	Exit px	How	P&L %	$ P&L
ARM	2026-04-16	2026-04-16	163.60	2026-07-07	300.43	close<50SMA	+83.64%	+83,637
ALAB	2026-04-30	2026-04-30	197.00	2026-07-16	319.74	close<50SMA	+62.30%	+62,305
ASTH	2026-06-09	2026-06-09	39.00	2026-07-17	44.43	stop (gap-down)	+13.92%	+13,923
URI	2026-05-27	2026-05-27	976.20	2026-07-20	1012.71	close<50SMA	+3.74%	+3,740

Subtotal: +163.60% cum · $+163,605

❌ Closed with loss / stop-outs (6)

Ticker	From list	Entered	Fill	Exited	Exit px	How	P&L %	$ P&L
SPCX	2026-06-29	2026-06-29	160.70	2026-07-13	141.42	disaster stop	-12.00%	-12,000
FLEX	2026-06-02	2026-06-02	154.30	2026-07-02	135.78	disaster stop	-12.00%	-12,000
PLXS	2026-06-01	2026-06-01	275.00	2026-07-07	255.94	close<50SMA	-6.93%	-6,931
CLOU	2026-07-07	2026-07-07	23.70	2026-07-23	22.52	close<50SMA	-4.98%	-4,979
SKYY	2026-07-07	2026-07-07	138.20	2026-07-22	133.19	close<50SMA	-3.63%	-3,625
TWLO	2026-05-19	2026-05-19	201.50	2026-07-21	196.22	close<50SMA	-2.62%	-2,620

Subtotal: -42.16% cum · $-42,155
Closed this month: 10 trades · win rate 40% · net realized $+121,449

Educational only — not investment advice. Do your own research.